Hostages:
Kann 11 reported that Hamas is now refusing to release any live hostages in the deal, and is instead offering the bodies of 12 hostages who are no longer alive. While Israel and other negotiators keep expressing optimism about a deal coming together soon, Hamas (especially the leadership inside Gaza) isn’t showing the same goodwill.
In the last update, I shared the optimism from a negotiations insider. Middle East security analyst, Seth Frantzman (PhD in Middle Eastern studies, and a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies) disagrees and thinks Hamas has no reason to go for a deal.
Ini summary, Frantzman says this is because Hamas thinks they’re winning the war—and according to their perspective and goals, it may look like that is true. Hamas’s goal is to survive the backlash for the October 7th massacre and kidnappings, and continue to rule Gaza and carry out more attacks against Israel.
All the UN organizations and other NGOs who work in Gaza want the war to end with Hamas remaining in power. More and more western powers are also showing preference for allowing Hamas to continue rule in Gaza. Even in Israel, the rhetoric has been reduced—while in the months immediately after October 7th officials would call Hamas “ISIS,” many are now even warming up to the idea of leaving a “weakened” Hamas in power in Gaza.
No widely accepted solution has been brought as to who will run Gaza after Hamas leaves. The west is against Israel running it as an “occupying force,” and many Israelis, particularly on the left, are afraid that such a setup would lead to more IDF soldiers being killed in the longterm. Israel will not trust the Palestinian Authority to run Gaza because they are both too corrupt and too weak (though many are insisting on this as a solution). Trusted Arab countries have also refused to assist, as they don’t either want to lose soldiers. There have been small-scale attempts to put local clans in charge of some areas of Gaza, but those all failed either by corruption, or by Hamas murdering them all. This lack of replacement is leading Hamas to believe that there will be no choice but to leave them in power—and therefore they are winning.
Frantzman doesn’t believe that president-elect Trump is enough of a scare for Hamas inside Gaza, as they likely believe that Qatar and Turkey will talk him down, and the inertia will continue on their side.
Meanwhile, and perhaps supporting Frantzman’s view, no Hamas terrorists have taken up Netanyahu’s standing offer of $5 million and safe passage in exchange for a live hostage.
Gaza:
The IDF announced the name of two heroes who fell in battle in Northern Gaza:
Sgt. Uriel Peretz, 23, from Beitar Illit
Staff Sgt. Yuval Shoham, 22, from Jerusalem
Terrorists in Northern Gaza are hard at work using up whatever rockets they have before the IDF finds them. Between Sunday and Monday, they fired around 11 rockets at Israeli border towns and the border city of Sderot. No injuries were caused.
On Sunday night, the IDF received intelligence that remaining terrorists in Jabaliya were planning to escape the city that night. Troops lay in ambush around the city, and eliminated at least 106 terrorists, all of whom were carrying weapons. Two terrorists surrendered and were arrested, and have already given valuable intelligence.
This mass Hamas attempt to flee came after the IDF operated in Kamal Adwan Hospital, which was described by the IDF as “Hamas’s last bastion in Jabalia.” In the Friday raid, 240 terrorists were arrested (amongst them many high ranking and 15 who participated in the October 7th massacre), and 19 were eliminated. This means that over 360 terrorists were either captured or eliminated from Jabaliya in just under four days.
It’s estimated that between 100-200 terrorists remain in Jabaliya. It appears that all civilians have left the city, though there may be a few in hiding. After almost three months of intense battles, Jabaliya is finally nearing its end.
On the bodies of one of the eliminated Hamas terrorists, the IDF found a video of terrorists planting roadside bombs just 45 meters from the Indonesian Hospital in Jabaliya.
The IDF and Shin Bet are continuing with the mission to find and eliminate every terrorist who took part in the October 7th attack. The Shin Bet says that they eliminated 6 such terrorists in targeted attacks over the last month, and 8 other Hamas terrorists were eliminated along with them.
A Sunday airstrike eliminated a group of terrorists who were operating out of the former (now empty) Al-Wafa Hospital in Gaza City. As usual, the IDF used a precision strike, and took steps to avoid harming civilians.
On Sunday night, an IDF airstrike destroyed the rocket launcher which had been used by terrorists to fire two long range rockets at Jerusalem on Shabbat. During the strike, a third rocket came flying out of the launcher, indicating that another attack had already been set up.
YNet reports that U.S. intel claims that Hamas has recruited 10,000 new terrorists in Gaza. The IDF resets the claim, and says that Hamas’s command and control structure is crippled and incapable of mass recruitment at this point.
Yemen:
On Monday evening, shortly after 11pm, the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Central Israel, triggering sirens for millions of Israelis. The missile was successfully intercepted before entering Israeli airspace, but a large fragment landed in Beit Shemesh, near Jerusalem. Thank G-d, the piece narrowly missed several cars, and landed on the side of the road and not a home. No direct injuries were reported.
Iran:
The Shin Bet arrested an Israeli citizen accused of carrying out tasks on behalf of “foreign elements.” While the Shin Bet didn’t name Iran, it seems to be the case. This is the 13th suspected Iranian espionage plot revealed by the Shin Bet in recent months.
Syria:
On Sunday, Syrian media reported an IDF airstrike in the city of Adra, on the eastern outskirts of Damascus.
The IDF was seen operating in the town of Madinat al-Baath in the Quneitra Governorate today (Monday). The town is in the buffer zone, which the IDF entered after the fall of Assad, to ensure that no terror groups move in. Syrian locals report seeing the IDF enter and search several government buildings in the town. The IDF has not yet commented don the incident.
According to the ALMA Institute, Syria is now at the start of an energy crisis. Until the fall of Assad, the country received oil from Iran. The new leadership, led by al-Julani, has cut ties with Iran and is still unclear on Russia. This leaves an opening for other countries who want to have significant control in Syria. While the EU and U.S. are cautious about lifting sanctions, countries like Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are moving in fast. Turkey already has heavy influence and controls parts of Northern Syria, Qatar already had planes deliver aid to Syria, and the Saudis have oil tankers on the way, among other gestures of support.
Israel needs to remain very cautious with its border.
Lebanon:
According to the Alma Institute: “Since the ceasefire went into effect on November 27, the IDF has killed 44 terrorists, attacked 25 times in Lebanese territory, and recorded 47 violations of the ceasefire agreement by Hezbollah.”
IDF troops are still operating in the border villages of Lebanon which were used by Hezbollah to attack Israel. Troops are still finding weapons, rocket launchers, and tunnels belonging to Hezbollah.
Other:
– According to reports in Iraq, the Iranian-backed militia stopped firing at Israel after Israel threatened to attack Iraq in response. America did not want Israel attacks in Iraq, and applied further pressure on the Iraqi government to get the militia under control.
