Hostages:
Negotiations for a hostage deal are ongoing. While some report that an agreement is imminent, others say the gaps are still too big, although significant progress has been made. While the negotiations are mainly in Egypt, Qatar has returned to playing a role.
Hamas is on their deathbed, and is extremely isolated and under severe pressure. However, Qatar is quietly encouraging them to hold on to the hostages until they get a deal that leaves them with continued control of Gaza. Israel won’t have that. Defense Minister Katz says that Israel will continue to have full military freedom over Gaza, just like in Judea and Samaria.
The deal on the table includes three phases. The first phase is a 60-day ceasefire in which some, but not all of the hostages will be released. The next stages include a complete IDF withdrawal, and reconstruction of Gaza. Israel does not seem to be counting on those stages occurring, but Hamas wants guarantees that it will happen, and that they will remain in control. They have conceded to allowing some kind of partnership with the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority.
There are many rumors about what has and has not been agreed on during the initial 60-day phase (which may end up being more or less days). According to the most reliable reports, what we do know is:
– An unspecified number of hostages will be returned, and possibly some bodies too. Of hostages who are alive, the women, sick, and elderly will be prioritized.
– Hundreds of terrorists will be released from prison, including murderers. For the first time, Hamas is agreeing to have the most serious terrorists exiled to Qatar or Turkey. The rest will be sent to PA-controlled areas (A&B) in Judea and Samaria. While the exact number and identities have not been released, insiders report that it will be “very difficult to stomach.” Israel’s red line: Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the Second Intifada, will not be released.
– It appears that Hamas may agree to the IDF remaining in the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors during the first phase, although with a decreased number of soldiers.
– Agreements have not yet been made over the Rafah Crossing which connects Gaza to Egypt. Hamas wants Israel out, but no acceptable security replacement has been found.
– Hamas also wants Gazans to return to Northern Gaza. Israel is offering to allow a limited number to return, through a security checkpoint which will sort out terrorists. Hamas has not yet agreed to checkpoint conditions.
During negotiations, operations in Gaza are increasing, to raise pressure on Hamas. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi told troops in Rafah “We are exerting pressure on Hamas daily, driving it into greater distress, to ensure the return of the 100 hostages, hopefully alive, and for those who are not, to provide them a proper burial in Israel.”
Gaza:
The IDF announced the names of two heroes who fell in battle in Rafah:
Maj. (res.) Moshiko (Maxim) Rozenwald, 35, from Modi’in.
Sgt. First Class. (res.) Alexander Anosov, 26, from Modi’in.
The two were from the Combat Engineering Corps’, and were killed after a building collapsed.
There are currently tree divisions operating in Gaza. The 162nd Division is in Northernmost Gaza, particularly the Jabaliya area. The 99th Division is in the Netzarim Corridor, which has expanded to around 47 square kilometers (18 square miles), and is used to launch small-scale operations in Gaza City, Central Gaza, and Khan Younis. The 143rd Division (aka the Gaza Division) is operating in Rafah, along the Philadelphi Corridor, and in the buffer zone.
In a significant development, the 98th Division might soon return to Gaza. The 98th Division is an elite formation which has paved the way with the most intensive operations in Gaza and then Lebanon. Their deployment to any area usually means heavy action. They have just completed heir missions in Lebanon, and are now in preparation for possible re-entry into Gaza. While it is unknown where they will be headed, many are hoping that it’s the parts of Central Gaza which the IDF has not yet entered on ground, and are still fully controlled by Hamas.
Hamas is still launching rockets, although very few, and mostly small improvised projectiles which aren’t capable of much.
Hamas launched two rockets on Friday, triggering sirens in Ashkelon and the area. No injuries or damage was reported. The rockets were launched from a site in Northern Gaza, just south of Jabaliya, and a short 50 meters from warehouses used by international aid organizations in Gaza. After the launch, the IDF issued evacuation warnings, and then launched a series of airstrikes in the area, targeting weapons warehouses and terrorists.
On Shabbat, a rocket was launched from Central Gaza, triggering sirens in three border towns. It landed in an empty area, and no injuries were reported.
Apart from ongoing activity, the IDF reported on a few special ground operations in Northernmost Gaza over the last week:
– In Beit Lahiya, troops found several rocket launchers which were aimed at Israeli border communities.
– A raid in Beit Hanoun eliminated dozens or terrorists who were attempting to regroup. Some were eliminated in gun battles, and some in airstrikes. Several more were detained.
– An operation in Beit Lahiya eliminated several terrorists, some in ground combat and some with airstrikes. Troops located and destroyed weapons in the area.
– Combat engineers destroyed a 500-meter-long tunnel in Jabalia, which was only recently discovered. On October 10th, Hamas had used this tunnel to plant a roadside bomb, and killed three IDF reservists.
The IDF also detailed several targeted airstrikes:
– An airstrike targeted the Deir al-Balah municipality building, which was being used by Hamas as a command center to carry out attacks. Deir al-Balah is in Central Gaza, in the designated humanitarian zone. Its area is the last place where the IDF has not yet carried out full operations on ground. Around 11 terrorists were eliminated in the strike, including the mayor of Deir al-Balah, who was also the head of the Hamas-run Emergency Committee in central Gaza.
– A drone strike in Rafah eliminated a group of armed terrorists who were moving toward IDF troops operating in the area.
– An airstrike targeted a Hamas command center embedded within a building that formerly housed the Abu Shabak medical clinic in Jabalia.
– Three consecutive airstrikes targeted Hamas cells operating in Gaza City, who were planning imminent attacks on IDF troops nearby.
– An airstrike in Central Gaza targeted a Hamas and Islamic Jihad (PIJ) command center, based out of the offices of the Gaza Civil Defense organization in Nuseirat. Al Jazeera cameraman, Ahmed al-Louh, who was also a PIJ terrorist, was eliminated in the airstrike, along with several other terrorists. Al-Louh is the third Al Jazeera terror member to be eliminated in Gaza, in addition to one who was wounded. In October, the IDF produced evidence that 6 Al Jazeera staffers in Gaza were members of the PIJ and Hamas.
Lebanon:
There’s about a month remaining to the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. The 91st Division is still maintaining positions and operating in the villages that line Lebanon’s border with Israel. The Lebanese Army is expected to remove Hezbollah from all of Southern Lebanon, starting with the Litani River, until they reach the IDF positions, and take them over.
In the meantime, the 91st Division is clearing out remaining Hezbollah infrastructure along the border. This week they captured anti-tank missiles, assault rifles, RPGs, mortars, and other weapons and equipment. They also located an anti-tank missile launch site which Hezbollah had previously used to attack Israeli border towns.
IDF combat engineers demolished a tunnel in southern Lebanon that served as a Hezbollah command center for directing rocket attacks on Northern Israel. Before destroying the tunnel, the elite Yahalom unit searched it, and found weapons, surveillance equipment, and other military gear. Near the tunnel were several more weapons depots. One of the depots was in a mosque, where troops found hundreds of explosive devices, guns, grenades, and other equipment.
The IDF reported two responses to Hezbollah ceasefire violations:
On Shabbat, the IAF carried out drone strikes against several primed rocket launchers in southern Lebanon, which were aimed at Israel
On Tuesday, an IAF drone strike targeted a Hezbollah terrorist who was spotted in Southern Lebanon loading up a vehicle with weapons.
Recent leaks report that before Israel entered Lebanon, U.S. intel warned Israel that a war with Lebanon would risk a wider regional war and lead to hundreds or thousands of Israeli deaths, G-d forbid. Thankfully, they were very wrong, and Israel saw miraculous achievements.
Hezbollah is severely weakened, and cut off from its Iranian supply train. Many in Lebanon are now turning on Hezbollah. Druze-Lebanese politician Wiam Wahhab, who was a known ally of Hezbollah, made a surprising statement: “The nation doesn’t want war. If you ask me, let’s move toward peace with Israel. I urge the Shiites to normalize relations and make peace with Israel so we can all live in peace. The resistance axis ended with the assassinations of Soleimani and Nasrallah.”
Syria:
The HTS rebel group who took over Damascus are continuing to put on a display of reform, and moderate Islam. Due to their origins in Al Qaeda, and ISIS-like name, most people are suspicious that this is just a show until they are stable enough to return to jihadi aspirations. The group’s first goal is to set up a new government, and get off the U.S. designated terror list. HTS leaders have stated that they will comply with the 1974 Syria-Israel truce agreement, and not attack Israel.
Aside from concerns that HTS may not keep its moderate tone, Israel is still not confident that another more dangerous rebel group might take control.
The IDF’s 210th “Bashan” Division, along with brigades from other divisions, are currently controlling the entire buffer zone on the Syrian side. A small number of IDF troops have also deployed beyond the buffer zone to strategic defensive positions in several areas.
The IDF acknowledged that it is operating beyond the buffer zone, but hasn’t detailed operations there. Syrian media reports that IDF soldiers entered the village of Ma’ariya and questioned locals. Ma’ariya is located in the southern Golan Heights, near the border with Jordan, and a few hundred meters east of the buffer zone. There are similar reports about the IDF entering Saidah, also at the outskirts of the buffer zone.
There are various theories as to what the IDF is doing there. The most basic, is that the IDF is ensuring that there are no weapons within range of Israel—whether abandoned Syrian tanks, missiles, or guns. Other speculate that Israel is concerned about instability in Jordan, and may be quietly acting to prevent rebel spillage to the fragile kingdom. Israel has been known to quietly assist the Jordanian kingdom’s stability in the background. Another theory is that the IDF is acting to protect the Syrian Druze in the area, until they achieve a security solution.
On Friday, leaders of around seven Druze villages in the Syrian Golan Heights voted to ask Israel to annex their communities, in order to protect them from jihadi rebels. Since then, the leading rebel group, HTS, has reached out to the Druze community to come to an agreement. Israel will likely play it safe and wait to see if the Druze can remain safe in the new Syria. (Druze are known for remaining loyal to the ruling government of whichever country they are in—whether Lebanon, Syria, or Israel.)
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin and Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the peak of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border. Katz emphasized the strategic importance and value of the Hermon for Israel’s security, and said that Israel will stay there for as long as needed.
Netanyahu told commanders that he intends to keep IDF forces there at least until 2025, after which they will stay until arrangements are made to ensure Israel’s security. Those who with with Netanyahu on his visit got the impression that Netanyahu doesn’t believe that a reliable security solution will come into play, and therefore it’s likely that the IDF will be in Syria for a very long time.
Iran:
The Shin Bet has been uncovering an Iranian plot with dozens of Israelis (mostly criminals and people desperate for money) hired to spy for Iran, and prepare assassination plots.
The IAEA Director General warned: “The agreement with Iran is irrelevant. Iran is getting closer to having nuclear weapons.”
IDF plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities are ingoing, though no details are known. It’s unlikely that we will learn anything about it, or if it will happen at all, until it does.
Iran is still threatening that they will retaliate against Israel with “Operation True Promise 3,” at some time and place. However, Iran is extremely weak, and fully aware that this would likely be a suicide attack for their regime.
Judea & Samaria:
A terrorist was apprehended after he opened fire on an Israeli motorist near the Barkan industrial zone.”
The Palestinian Authority is struggling to regain control over Jenin and large swathes of Samaria. The U.S. has asked Israel to allow them to help the P.A. arm, in order to fight the rebellious terror groups. Most members of the P.A. celebrated the October 7th attacks. Historically, many P.A. security forces have been involved in terror attacks, and used their weapons to attack Israelis.
Yemen:
On Monday morning, a Houthi drone was intercepted by an Israeli Navy missile boat over the Mediterranean Sea.
On Monday afternoon, a Houthi ballistic missile triggered sirens across all of Central Israel. It was successfully intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace.
On Wednesday night, or early Friday morning, the Houthis fired another ballistic missile at Central Israel, sending millions of Israelis to shelter in the middle of the night. Shrapnel from the interception caused severe damage to an elementary school building in Ramot Gan, even collapsing part of the building. The school building will not be usable for a while. Several nearby houses were also damaged by the shrapnel.
Shortly after the last attack, dozens of Israeli fighter jets attacked Houthi positions in Yemen. According to initial reports, the IAF hit the Haziz power plants in Dhaban and Haziz in Sanaa, the port of Al-Hodeidah, and the oil facility in Ras Al-Issa. Electricity is now out in most parts of Houthi-controlled Yemen.
Other:
The IDF is forming a new light infantry division called the David Division (96th Division), comprising 15,000 reservists aged 38-58, mostly volunteers. The division’s mission is to be able to respond quickly to incidents across Israel, especially along the borders, including in Judea and Samaria. The division will have five brigades, each corresponding to one of five regions in Israel. Each brigade will have five battalions, dividing the regions further into more local groups. Reservists will be assigned to brigades according to their primary place of residence, and will be trained and organized to defend their region.
On October 7th, many armed combat soldiers and police rushed to various scenes of attack on their own, and saved countless lives. But the more remote areas, such as Kibbutz Nir Oz, was left on its own for far too long. The David Division aims to prevent this type of situation, by having reserve units organized and ready in every area.
Under Maj. Gen. (res.) Moti Almoz’s leadership, most command positions have been filled, and the division is set to be fully operational by the end of 2025.
