Hostages:
Hamas’s political leadership have been living in Qatar, since before October 7th. Qatar has also been playing a major role as a negotiator, at the request of the White House. Reports indicate that Qatar encouraged and supported Hamas in keeping the hostages, while posing as a helpful negotiator. The U.S. placed minimal pressure on Qatar to threaten to expel Hamas if no agreement is made to free the hostages.
There have been reports in the past that Qatar threatened to expel Hamas, but Hamas officials always denied the reports, and no evidence of action was seen. There are now renewed reports of Qatar threatening to expel Hamas, and saying that they will no longer act as a negotiator, due to the lack of progress. It is probably too soon to believe that Qatar is doing anything more than putting on a show.
In the meantime, Qatar is reportedly now asking for Israeli guarantees that no Hamas member will be assassinated on their soil.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan again confirmed: “It is not Israel that is preventing a cease-fire deal now, but Hamas.”
Hamas still has not given up on their demand for a complete IDF ceasefire and withdrawal from all parts of Gaza (including the Netzarim Corridor, Philadelphi Corridor, and buffer zone), in exchange for any hostages.
Gaza:
The head of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) operations, Muhammad Abu Sahil, was eliminated in an airstrike on a command room which was embedded in a former school in northern Gaza.
IDF troops in the far north section of Gaza have been eliminating dozens of terrorists daily, while working to thoroughly clear the area of Hamas. Around 1,000 terrorists have been arrested in Jabaliya so far, in addition to the 1,000 eliminated. Civilians continue to evacuate, and are beginning to publicly express anger at Hamas from bringing the destruction on them. IDF troops provide the evacuating civilians with food, water, and assistance.
Results in Jabaliya after evacuating civilians are showing similar success to that in Rafah, where Hamas was much easier to defeat without their human shields. In order to completely remove Hamas from power in Gaza, the IDF will have to use this model in all areas of Gaza, and filter the eventual return of civilians to these areas, so that they remain Hamas-free.
On Thursday, 11 trucks of humanitarian aid entered the far north section of Gaza, which includes Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun. These areas are under mandatory evacuation, and have very few civilians left—most remaining are Hamas. The IDF facilitated the delivery under threat from the Biden administration, despite a wide consensus that the aid deliveries are keeping Hamas alive. A total of 713 trucks of aid were delivered to this area of Gaza in October.
The IDF released multiple reports to refute claims of imminent famine in Gaza. Between 100-200 aid trucks enter Gaza daily, and 12 bakeries produce 3 million pita loaves daily inside Gaza.
Israel is opening a new crossing to transfer aid into Gaza, via Kissufim, near Khan Younis in Southern Gaza. The IDF paved a new road from inside Israel and into Gaza, leading to the humanitarian zone.
Lebanon:
The IDF announced the name of a hero who fell in battle in Lebanon:
Master Sgt. (res.) Guy Shabtay. 39, of the Alon Brigade’s 8207th Battalion, from Jerusalem.
Hezbollah has been firing between 80-120 projectiles at Israel daily, including rockets, missiles, and attack drones. The attacks are primarily in the north, up until just after the Haifa area, there are occasional launches at the Tel Aviv area.
Much of the Northern Israel landscape is covered with Arab villages, and these villages are taking the brunt of Hezbollah’s rocket fire. Most injuries in recent days have been in Arab villages, which have also taken significant damage to local homes.
Over the weekend, the IAF targeted up of 100 Hezbollah sites, including in the the suburbs of Beirut, and in Tyre and other parts of Southern Lebanon. Airstrikes target weapons storage facilities, command rooms, tunnels, and other infrastructure. In one airstrike, the commander of Hezbollah’s artillery forces in Blida was eliminated.
IDF troops are still primarily in the front line of Hezbollah villages in Southern Lebanon, where they continue to search for tunnels and other Hezbollah infrastructure that is hard to find from above. Troops confiscated of 66,000 Hezbollah weapons in Lebanon so far. The IDF has now approved plans to expand ground operations, and mobilize more soldiers to move into the next line of villages.
Amongst the most significant finds in Southern Lebanon recently:
Troops found a Hezbollah training base, located just 200 meters from a UNIFIL base and observation tower. The base was used for training, storing weapons, and had primed rocket launchers. The weapons were confiscated, and the base was demolished.
Intelligence gatherings recently pointed the elite Shaldag unit to discover a large Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, hidden beneath a cemetery. IDF forces raided the one-kilometer-long tunnel, which was about 1.5 kilometers from the Israeli border. Inside, they found command centers, sleeping quarters, and weapons depots, which the IDF says Hezbollah intended to use for a planned invasion of Israel. The tunnel was sealed off by pumping in 4,500 cubic meters of concrete, involving hundreds of trucks and cement mixers.
The elite Alpinist unit also searched the Lebanon side of Mount Dov, where they found many hidden tunnels, rocket launchers, and weapons depots in the difficult terrain.
Overnight, Saturday-Sunday, the IDF “allegedly” targeted two sit-in Syria, one belonging to the IRGC, and the other belonging to Hezbollah’s Radwan forces, and used for weapons storages. There are unconfirmed reports that Hezbollah commander, Salim Jamil Ayyash, was eliminate din one of these airstrikes. Ayyash was sentenced to life imprisonment in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for his role in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in a suicide bombing in Beirut. The U.S. State Department had a $10 million reward for information on Ayyash.
There are reports of serious negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon. The conditions being discussed include a 60-day pause in fire, during which the IDF remains in the first row of villages in Southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army works to remove Hezbollah from all villages south of the Litani River. The IDF will maintain the right to carry out raids or airstrikes to prevent any effort by Hezbollah to rearm. Russia will guarantee that no weapons are transferred from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon, in exchange form the U.S. lifting sanctions on Russian companies operating in Syria.
While trusting Russia seems insane, the agreement’s hope/theory is that Russia will work to preserve its ally in Syria, so that it doesn’t end up destroyed by Israel. Netanyahu might also be bringing Russia into the equation in order to reduce U.S. influence and exclusivity on the region’s security.
Many in Israel, including former cabinet member Benny Gantz, are against agreeing to a ceasefire now, while Hezbollah still has plenty firepower and ability to regroup, and is not yet sufficiently deterred from doing so. It is widely accepted that such an agreement will simply be a delay of a continued war in a few more years.
Iran:
Iran has not made any interesting moves in recent days, and is likely doing their best to hide preparations for an attack, in order to prevent preemptive strikes from the IDF.
Other:
– The Shin Bet foiled a plan by Hamas members in Chevron to assassinate Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and his oldest sone Shoval, who is currently training to be a pilot in the Air Force.
– On Friday, the Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, triggering sirens in the Dead Sea area. The Houthis claimed that they were targeting the Nevatim Airbase.The missile was successfully intercepted by Israeli air defenses.
– Iranian-backed militia in Iraq are launching between 3-7 attack drones at Israel daily, often resulting in sky battles as IDF jets and helicopters locate and intercept the threats. Early Monday morning (as I’m about to send this update), a launch from Iraq triggered sirens in the areas between Beit Shemesh and Chevron.
– The regional court in the German capital, Berlin, has issued a decision classifying the slogan *”From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free”* as a “terrorist symbol.”
– The Biden administration has halted a shipment of heavy-duty D9 bulldozers to Israel—after Israel already paid for the order. The D9s are used to clear mines from the roads ahead of IDF troops, and to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah infrastructure. The IDF’s current supply of D9s is in serious need of replacement, since these vehicles go through very rough treatment. The Biden admin is reportedly concerned with the destruction caused by the vehicles to the homes containing terrorism infrastructure.
