Hostage Updates:
After rumors that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not interested in making a hostage ceasefire deal, and added extra demands in order to derail talks, the Prime Minister’s office published a statement that these rumors are false. The statement, in summary, says:
– Hamas is trying to introduce dozens of changes that nullify the outline.
– Hamas only agrees to release a small number of hostages .
– Hamas continues to demand a complete end to the war, the ability to flood Gaza with weapons, retake control of it, and repeat the horrors of the Seventh October.
– Netanyahu is willing to go to great extents to release the hostages, while maintaining Israel’s security
– Netanyahu didn’t add anything to the original May 27th outline, and is only insisting on retaining the conditions that will bring home the maximum number of living hostages in the first stage of the deal, prevent smuggling through the Philedalphi Corridor, and prevent terrorists from returning to and rearming Northern Gaza.
– Giving in to Hamas’s current demands will return Israel to the realities of October 6th.
Late at night after Shabbat, Israel’s negotiating team returned from Cairo, and said that the talks were positive, and progress was made on the parameters of the Philedalphi Corridor (which stretches along the Gaza-Egypt border), and the Rafah crossing.
According to some reports, the military leadership believes that the IDF can fully withdraw from Gaza for 6 weeks to allow the hostages to be released, and then return and retake what was lost. Netanyahu is against this, because:
A) It will not release all the hostages,
B) Israel has not received guarantees from the negotiation mediators (U.S.A., Egypt, and Qatar) that the IDF will be able to return unimpeded if negotiations for the second phase fall through at 6 weeks,
C) The military leadership is not considering IDF lives that will be lost when retaking the areas of Gaza that Hamas will rearm.
The core debate of whether or not to agree to the hostage deal comes down to the value of IDF soldiers lives. Those in support of the current deal believe that the hostages, who are being held in horrid conditions, must be saved above all—and there is not point in the army if they cannot save the hostages. Those in opposition believe that saving the hostages must be done without sacrificing more lives in the longterm. In between are those who believe that a deal can be made, but only by military pressure and showing a tough front at negotiations—and not desperation, which only encourages Hamas to demand more.
In addition, there is a lack of trust. On one side are political opponents to Netanyahu, who wanted him out long before October 7th, and believe that he is avoiding a hostage deal because it will collapse his government, and on the other are those who don’t trust the military leadership who one the night of October 6th, unanimously chose to ignore warnings from those on the ground, and went to sleep, without even notifying the Prime Minister.
Iran & Proxies Attack Updates:
While Hezbollah has evacuated vital staff from sensitive sites in Beirut, there are no other significant signs of a large-scale attack in the immediate hours. While initial intelligence assessed that the attack would take place at any point during the weekend, some intelligence is now saying that Iran prefers to take more time, and may even choose to attack on Tisha B’Av, which this year lands on August 13. On Tisha B’Av, the Jewish people mourn the destruction of the First and Second Temples (Beit Hamikdash), and the Iranians tend to lean to the symbolic.
However, there is no solid evidence as to when exactly the attack will be, and in the meantime, Israelis are encouraged to continue life as normal, with an extra dose of vigilance. In addition to IDF and emergency services preparation, on Friday, government ministers received satellite cellphones, in case of service outages, and were told to remain available at all times.
The Israeli Navy has been carrying out exercises at sea, and successfully tested the advanced BARAK MX air defense system against a precision missile.
The U.S., U.K., Russia, Ukraine, and Jordan, amongst other countries, have issued travel warnings, urging all citizens in Lebanon to evacuate immediately. Most international airlines have cancelled flights to Israel and Beirut. The U.S. warning urged citizens to leave Lebanon “by all means necessary,” and to reach out to the embassy if they needed financial assistance to do so. It added that those who choose to stay should prepare emergency plans, and shelter in place for the time being.
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, senior officials from Arab countries delivered warnings to Iran on behalf of Israel and the United States, stating that Israel is ready to go to war if Hezbollah and Iran respond aggressively to the elimination of Haniyeh. The report says that Senior Iranian officials replied that they understand the risk of escalation, but Khamenei is under internal pressure from extremist elements to respond.
Iran has been holding meetings with leaders of their proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, as well as whatever is left of Hamas. Evidence points to them planning a sudden and heavy multi-front attack, in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli air defenses.
U.S. British, and French military jets will likely assist in defenses against the long-range attacks from Iran and Yemen, as they did on April 13th (when Israel downed the majority, but the assistance was still invaluable). However, in the April attack, Hezbollah was a minor player, and this time they are preparing to come in strong, with heavy fire, both short and long-range. Due to Lebanon’s proximity to Israel, the international partners will not be able to assist in defense against Hezbollah, and those will be left up to the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow defenses, as well as IAF fighter jets.
Jordan is expected to intercept any missiles or drones over their airspace, as a defense of their own sovereignty.
In preparation, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with his British counterpart, Chief of the Defense Staff Adm. Sir Antony David Radakin earlier today, for a situational assessment.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin released a statement, to the effect that he had spoken with Defense Minister Galant, and said that the U.S. is taking additional measures to support the defense of Israel, and also that “further escalation is not inevitable,” expressing the U.S.’s hope that a ceasefire deal can be achieved to de-escalate matters.
According to reports, the Biden administration is not happy about the assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, and is likely (but not confirmed to be) pressuring Israel not to pre-empt Iran’s retaliation, in hopes of some sort of de-escalation.
Gaza Front Updates:
On Friday, Hamas fired around 19 rockets into Southern Israel. All except one were launched at communities along the Gaza border. One rocket landed in an empty space in the Kiryat Malachi area. While this is a significant amount compared to recent weeks, it is near nothing compared to what the usual response would have been to the assassination of the leader of Hamas just months ago—a strong sign that Hamas’s firing power is greatly diminished. Still, they may be gathering what they have left to join in when Iran leads a coordinated attack.
Thank G-d, the IDF did not announce any fallen heroes today.
Three divisions of IDF troops are currently operating in Gaza: the 252nd Division (replacing the 99th Division) along the Netzarim Corridor, and on pinpoint operations in Central Gaza; the Gaza Division in the buffer zone; and the 162nd Division in Rafah and along the Philadelphi Corridor.
The IDF used fighter jets to carry out a precision strike against a Hamas command and control center, which was based in a (former) school building in the Sheikh Radian neighborhood of Gaza City. Hamas was using the building to store weapons, and plan and execute attacks against IDF troops in Gaza. Around a dozen terrorists were eliminated in the airstrike. Due to the presence of civilians sheltering in other parts of the building, the IDF used extreme caution, intelligence, and surveillance, before carrying out the precision strike.
On Friday, the IDF eliminated Muhammad al-Jabari, a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist who was the deputy head of a PIJ weapons manufacturing unit, and responsible for the unit’s finances.
IDF soldiers in the Netzarim Corridor spotted terrorists emerging from a tunnel, and eliminated them with a drone strike, they later discovered a weapons depot in the area, and called in an attack helicopter to destroy it.
Troops are advancing in Rafah, where on Friday they eliminated over 30 terrorists on close-quarters combat.
After eliminating Al-Jazeera reporter, Ismail Alghoul, last week, the IDF released a Hamas document which listed the details of thousands of terrorists in Hamas’s military wing, including Alghoul as an engineer in Hamas’s Gaza City Brigade
Hamas sources confirmed that the IDF recently assassinated two Hamas politburo leaders (Rawhi Mushtaha and Sameh al-Siraj) and three military commanders (Abdul Hadi Siam, Sami Odeh, and Muhammad Hadid) in a tunnel under Gaza City. The IDF had targeted the political leaders in November, but had been unable to confirm their deaths.
According to the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel reports, Hamas has begun holding consultations in Qatar to choose an interim replacement for Ismail Haniyeh, until internal elections are held in a few months. According to reports, Hamas military leader, Sinwar, refuses the appointment of Khaled Mashal, due to his weak relationship with Iran and Syria, and instead prefers his deputy, Khalil al-Hiya as the replacement. This of course would give Sinwar even more control of Gaza, and in his ideals, the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria, down the line.
Gaza Humanitarian Efforts Updates:
During the month of July, over 3 million liters of fuel designated for the operation of vital humanitarian infrastructure entered Gaza, at requests of UN aid agencies. It is suspected that Hamas pirated a significant amount of the fuel for the purpose of powering tunnels, rockets, and transportation vehicles.
Northern Front Updates:
While threatening to deepen attacks on Israel, Hezbollah has continued to shower rockets on communities in Israel’s far north, specifically along the Israel-Lebanon border, and Kiryat Shemona. Damage was caused to multiple homes and buildings, including a school in Metula which was hit by an anti-tank missile. The night after Shabbat, residents of the Upper Galilee in Northern Israel were warned to stay near bomb shelters, after an IDF assessment. Hours later, shortly after midnight, Hezbollah launched a heavy bombardment of rockets on Israel’s far north and Kiryat Shemona.
An independent UNIFIL (the United Nation’s Interim Force in Lebanon) investigation found that it was in fact a Hezbollah rocket that killed the 13 children in Majdal Shams last week. That UNIFIL carried out the investigation is surprising, and even more so, that it was reported on Sky News in Arabic.
The IDF carried out numerous strikes against Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon, and amongst other Hezbollah terrorists, eliminated Ali And Ali, who the IDF says was a central terrorist in the Southern Front of Hezbollah (equivalent to the regional command pf the entire south), who was involved in planning and carrying out numerous attacks. This evening, Hezbollah announced their 387th terrorist eliminated by the IDF.
Lebanese media reported an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Dabaa Airport in Syria, which is adjacent to the border with Lebanon, and is known to be used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon. Israel has not commented don this airstrike. Lebanese later reported further airstrikes in the area.
Houthi & Iraqi War Front Updates:
The US Central Command destroyed a Houthi missile and launcher in Yemen.
According to CNN sources, Russia was set to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthi rebels in Yemen late last month, but withdrew at the last minute due to intense behind-the-scenes efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to prevent it.
Judea and Samaria Updates:
The IDF stopped a large-scale terror attack this morning, with a drone strike on a vehicle in Tulkarem. In the vehicle, were five armed terrorists, including a local commander, who were on their way to carry out the attack. None of the five survived the strike.
In a later incident, the IDF eliminated a cell of four armed terrorists who had fired at IDF troops operating in the area. The IDF confiscated a large amount of weaponry from the terrorists. The PIJ claimed the four as their own.
International Updates:
The Daily Mail reported that the UK’s new Labour government has implemented a “secret arms embargo” on Israel, by pausing all new weapons export licenses until UK Foreign Minister David Lammy completes a review of whether war crimes were carried out by the IDF during the offensive against Hamas, which will be completed at the summer’s end. In addition to weaponry, the embargo includes military radios and body armor.
Turkey (a NATO member state) held a national day of mourning for Hamas Chief, Ismael Haniyeh, and on Friday, lowered their flag at their embassy in Tel Aviv to half mast. Their ambassador was called to Israel’s Foreign Ministry for a severe reprimand.
Qatar also mourned Haniyeh, with his image projected onto state buildings. Qatar claims to be a neutral mediator in the hostage negotiations.
General Updates:
Sheizaf Meshulam, an Israeli mother and wife of an IDF reservist shared a sweet story. Shortly after October 7th, she received a message from a young woman named Inbar, who said she wanted to help military spouses. Over the next few months, while Sheizaf’s husband was in the army, Inbar babysat her kids, helped with cleaning and cooking, and ran errands for her. The family grew close with Inbar, who would come at the drop of a hat whenever they needed, but had no idea that she was taking off time from Judo training to be with them, until very recently. On Friday, the kids watched as Inbar Lanir won silver at the Olympics.
Sheizaf shared a screenshot of her messages with Inbar, in which she has her saved as “Inbar babysitter.”
