Hostage Updates:
On Friday, US President Joe Biden gave a speech, in which he outlined a ceasefire and hostage release proposal, which he said the Israeli negotiating team agreed to (with PM Netanyahu’s approval), and appealed to the wider Israeli government and to Hamas to agree to it, and see it through. The deal is divided into three phases, with the second and third stages only going through if the first one is successful. The outline is as follows:
**First phase, 6 weeks:
Hamas gets:
– A complete ceasefire
– Withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza
– The release of hundreds of Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prison, including murderers
– Palestinian civilians can return to their homes in Gaza – including in Northern Gaza
– A surge in humanitarian aid to 600 trucks daily
Israel gets:
– Release of “humanitarian” hostages and some bodies of hostages. Humanitarian hostages are women, children, elderly, and injured. The release will happen gradually over the 6 weeks.
—> During this phase, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two. According to Biden’s speech, if six weeks pass without an agreement, the ceasefire continues so long as talks continue. According to an Israeli source, Israel reserves the right to continue fighting if Hamas doesn’t follow the agreement and release all the hostages, or if at any point it appears that Hamas is just dragging out negotiations to pause the war.
The Israeli source also says that the discussions must start no later than 16 days into the first phase. He claims that these discussions will map out the destruction of the military and government capabilities of Hamas, and the second phase won’t begin until it’s clear that Hamas will no longer pose a threat to Israel.
**Second Phase:
Hamas gets:
– A permanent ceasefire
– Israeli forces completely withdraw from Gaza
– The release of more (and likely worse) terrorists from Israeli prison
Israel gets:
– The remaining living hostages, including male soldiers.
—> Details that need to be hashed out include how to ensure that Hamas doesn’t kill most of the remaining living hostages before this stage, since they will no longer be as valuable; which terrorists will be released from prison, since Hamas is demanding some of the most notorious—including Marwan Bargouti who led the Second Intifada; and whether the IDF will continue to control the Philadelphi Corridor from where Hamas is struggling arms—which seems unlikely.
**Third Phase:
Hamas gets:
– Major reconstruction plan for Gaza
Israel gets:
– The remaining bodies of hostages
—> Hamas will likely be able to begin rebuilding tunnels during this phase.
During his speech, Biden claimed that Israel is not risking its security with this deal, because they’ve devastated Hamas forces, and Hamas is no longer able to carry out an October 7th attack again. Biden carried on saying that Israel’s pursuit of a “total victory” will not bring Israel security, but will instead bog Israel down, drain the economy, and further Israel’s isolation from the world. He added that the ceasefire deal will bring the benefit of a possible ceasefire with Hezbollah, and peace with Saudi Arabia—which he says would “make Israel more secure, with Israeli families no longer living in the shadow of a terrorist attack.”
It’s important to note that Biden only said Hamas wouldn’t be able to carry out another October 7th attack. Whether this is true or not, this doesn’t include the tens of thousands of rockets that Hamas has been firing onto Israeli civilians for decades, nor the terror attacks they’ve been directing all over Israel.
In Biden’s plea to Israel to accept the deal, he added: “I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some — some are even in the government coalition. And they’ve made it clear: They want to occupy Gaza, they want to keep fighting for years, and the hostages are not a priority to them. Well, I’ve urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes.”
The Biden administration has been putting heavy pressure on all sides to get the deal through, enlisting the help of many Arab and European countries, and other international partners.
Today, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office put out a statement: “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Under the proposal, Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.”
As predicted, Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir immediately opposed the deal, and stated that they would leave the coalition, collapsing the government, if it goes through.
MK Gideon Saar, who left Minister Gantz’s party and sits in the opposition, stated: “An outline that ends with Hamas being left intact as the governing and military force in Gaza, means that the threat to the citizens of Israel in general and the residents of the Gaza Strip in particular was allowed. This would be an Israeli defeat and a victory for Hamas, the consequences of which would be far-reaching.”
The Forum of Families of Hostages are in favor of the deal.
On Friday, Hamas put out a statement claiming that they will only come to the negotiating table *after* a ceasefire begins. Later, they added: “We view positively what was included in the speech of US President Biden. We are willing to respond positively to any proposal based on a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, rehabilitation, the return of the displaced to all their places of residence, and the completion of a serious prisoner exchange deal—If Israel declares its explicit commitment to this.”
However, sources say that what Hamas says publicly and behind closed doors isn’t always consistent. While there is a small chance that Hamas will agree to the deal, it is highly unlikely that negotiations will lead to the second phase, since it will require both Israel and Hamas make further concessions from what each is currently claiming to achieve: mainly, Israel wants Hamas completely dismantled, and Hamas wants to continue to rule Gaza (with sights on Judea and Samaria in the near future).
Practically speaking: to move ahead, Hamas needs to agree to the deal, and then the wider Israeli Cabinet needs a majority vote in favor.
*Gaza Front Updates:*
Hamas fired a small number of rockets on Israeli communities near the Gaza border. No injuries were reported.
On Friday, the IDF announced the names of two heroes who fell in battle in Gaza:
Sgt. First Class (res.) Adar Gavriel, 24, from Caesarea
Sgt. Yehonatan Elias, 20, from Jerusalem
Three divisions of IDF troops are currently operating in Gaza: the 99th Division along the Netzarim Corridor, Central Gaza, and in Gaza City; The Gaza Division in various areas in Gaza on pinpoint operations; and the 162nd Division in Rafah.
After three weeks, the 98th Division wrapped up the operation in Jabalia, Northern Gaza. The battle was amongst the most intense during this war, with Hamas deeply embedded in dense urban infrastructure, including in schools and shelters. The operation primarily focused on the “camp” area, which the IDF had not previously entered. According to some sources, the IDF entered expecting to find one regrouped Hamas battalion, but instead found three, and destroyed one and a half. It is likely that the IDF will re-enter soon to take are of the remaining Hamas forces.
The IDF summarized the results of the operation, in which seven hostage’s bodies were found, between 500-600 Hamas terrorists were eliminated, 200 airstrikes were carried out, 12 kilometers of Hamas tunnels were destroyed, hundreds of weapons and several rocket launchers were destroyed, and the commander of the Beit Hanoun battalion was eliminated. Sadly, ten Israeli soldiers fell in Jabaliya.
The 98th Division is now having some rest and undergoing training and preparation for their next mission.
The 99th Division started a new pinpoint operation in Gaza City’s Sabra neighborhood. This is the second time that the IDF is operating in this neighborhood, this time it is being carried out by the Carmeli and Yiftach reserve brigades, along with the “Ghost Unit.” So far, the IDF says that troops have found tunnel shafts and weapons.
Airstrikes in the Central Gaza area eliminated a few senior terrorists: Salame Baraka, head of Hamas’s Khan Younis police finance department; Walid Abed Abu Dalal, who headed the technology department for Hamas’s internal security forces, which inhibited the IDF’s freedom of action in Gaza; and Tareq Darwish who was a prominent member of the Nuseirat Battalion’s aerial array.
The IDF confirmed that it is now operating in the center of Rafah, in a “precise and intelligence-base” operation. Troops have been locating rocket launchers, tunnels shafts, weapons, and explosives, and eliminated Hamas terrorists—including at least one member of Hamas’s elite “Nukhba” force. The IDF released a video which maps out the locations of 20 smuggling tunnels, as well as rocket launchers, in the Philedalphi Corridor which stretches along the Gaza-Egypt border. The IDF continues to control the Philadelphi Corridor, with troops all along it, except at the far west end, near the shore, which they say is under surveillance, and within shooting range of artillery.
Heavy airstrikes were reported in Rafah late at night, ahead of an expected IDF advancement in the city.
Troops have increasingly been using drones in activities across Gaza, and especially in Rafah, to search buildings and find Hamas traps. The IDF has been releasing some footage from some of these drones, which were civilian-funded, including many from our campaign.
The IDF has been cracking down on Hamas’s Judea and Samaria Division, which is headquartered in Gaza. The Gaza headquarters fund activities in Judea and Samaria, and is responsible for directing more than 20 shooting attacks in Israel over the last year alone, resulting in the killing of eight Israelis, and injury of several more. The unit is largely made up of terrorists who were originally arrested in Judea and Samaria, and were then released in the 2011 Gilad Shalit deal (in which 1,027 convicted terrorists were released from prison), and exiled to Gaza.
In November, the IDF arrested HQ member, Mahmoud Bashir Tanira in Gaza, along with nine other unit members. Since then, the IDF used airstrikes to eliminate 18 members, in addition to three prominent leaders over the past few days: Mansour Adil Mansour Kashlan in Nuseirat, and Yassin Rabia in Rafah, who was eliminated alongside another prominent but unnamed leader.
Focusing on the Judea and Samaria Division’s finances, a Friday airstrike in Gaza City’s Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods targeted a building belonging to the Al-Noor group, which has transferred millions of dollars to Hamas in Judea and Samaria, to sponsor terror attacks and reward families of terrorists jailed or eliminated by the IDF.
Gaza Humanitarian Efforts Updates:
This morning, there were 600 trucks waiting to be collected by the UN on the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom Crossing. By 4pm, the UN organizations had only collected 135.
On Thursday, May 29th:
335 humanitarian aid trucks were transferred to Gaza
5 tankers (267,000 liters) of fuel designated for humanitarian purposes in Gaza, entered Gaza
41 trucks were coordinated and transferred to northern Gaza
There are 8 operational field hospitals, 3 mobile clinics, and 2 UNFPA mobile maternity rooms in Gaza, in addition to all 36 Gaza hospitals which have returned to operation.
Northern Front Updates:
Hezbollah escalated attacks on Israel’s north over the last two days, including two attacks which reached the Acco (Acre) area, and a barrage of heavy “Burkan” rockets at a military base adjacent to Kiryat Shemona, which caused heavy damage both to infrastructure on the base, and in nearby Kiryat Shemona. One man was lightly injured in an attack in Ma’alot Tarshiha. Firefighters worked all day to put out fires along the northern border which were caused by the Hezbollah attacks.
In Addition, Hezbollah downed an Israeli Hermes 900 drone (worth $10 million) over Southern Lebanon, using a surface-to-air missile. This is the fourth time that Hezbollah downed an Israeli drone since the start of the war, and the second Hermes 900.
The IDF says that it attacked significant Hezbollah assets in Southern Lebanon, with 40 airstrikes today, including direct attacks on 10 Hezbollah terror squads. This evening, Lebanese media reported an Israeli airstrike in Baalbek in northeastern Lebanon, where Hezbollah is known to store munitions.
Houthi & Iraqi War Front Updates
The U.S. Central Command reported that they downed two Houthi drones. In addition, two ballistic missiles launched by the Iranian-backed Houthis into the Gulf of Aden caused no damage or injuries.
Judea and Samaria Updates:
The IDF is currently operating in the Shechem (Nablus) area, Qalqilya, and in Aqab, north of Jerusalem, as well as other locations. Clashes are reported.
Iranian Front Updates:
A report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report demonstrates that Iran is significantly expanding its uranium enrichment system in a way that will be very difficult to roll back. The report revealed that Iran is continuing to expand its nuclear program, and is accumulating additional material to a high enrichment level of 60%. While Iran is not crossing the threshold to a 90% military enrichment level, the report indicates that this isn’t due to technological challenges, and they are likely able to easily reach that level, but are however withholding for now as a political choice.
At this point, it is unclear what, if anything, the U.S. can do about this. The threat of sanctions no longer holds water, especially since Russia and China (and possibly India) will no longer support it. However, inaction after the IAEA report signals to Iran that they can keep going.
Hezbollah announced the 238th of their ranks eliminated by the IDF.
International Updates:
Over the weekend Prime Minister Netanyahu received a bipartisan invitation to address a joint meeting of both Houses of Congress. Netanyahu’s office put out a statement on his behalf: “I am very moved to have the privilege of representing Israel before both Houses of Congress and to present the truth about our just war against those who seek to destroy us to the representatives of the American people and the entire world.”
