Hostage Updates:
It is unclear how the assassination of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, will affect the negotiations—whether it will cause Hamas to completely back out, or motivate the remaining Hamas leaders to bring about a ceasefire before they themselves meet the same end as Haniyeh.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the US still intends to reach a deal, stating: “Nothing detracts from the importance of reaching an agreement. I will not try to estimate what the impact of this or that event will be.”
There is no evidence that Haniyeh was central to the negotiations any more than Hamas’s military leader, Yahya Sinwar, who is actually in (under) Gaza, commanding the Hamas action.
Gaza Front Updates:
Hamas has not successfully fired rockets at Israeli civilians since Sunday.
Thank G-d, the IDF did not announce any fallen soldiers.
Three divisions of IDF troops are currently operating in Gaza: the 99th Division along the Netzarim Corridor, and on pinpoint operations in parts of Northern Gaza and neighborhoods of Gaza City; the Gaza Division in the buffer zone; and the 162nd Division in Rafah and along the Philadelphi Corridor.
While the IDF did not publish numbers, heavy Air Force action was seen over Gaza today. In one incident which the IDF did publish, IDF reservists in the Netzarim corridor called a drone strike after spotting a cell of terrorists planting an explosive device nearby—and promptly eliminated the group.
Gaza media report an airstrike in Al-Shati, near the home of Ismail Haniyeh. The airstrike allegedly hit a car, and killed Al-Jazeera reporter Ismail Alghoul and cameraman Ramy El-Rify. The IDF has not yet commented on the incident.
Around 2:00 a.m., Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated while staying at a special regime residence during a visit in Tehran. Haniyeh was the leader of Hamas in Gaza since 2007, and was one of the founders of Hamas’s terrorism ideology and methods. He is known for calling on women and children in Gaza to act as human shields to protect terrorists as they fire at Israel—while he himself lived in Qatar since 2017, enjoying his $4 billion net worth. After October 7th, Israel vowed to eliminate every Hamas leader, with Haniyeh at the top of the list.
It is still unknown how Haniyeh was eliminated, though the Far news agency (which is linked to the Iranian regime). Says that he was eliminated by a “projectile from the air,” which may have entered through his window. Israel has not given any statement about the issue, not confirming or denying involvement, which is the usual for any strike occurring inside Iran.
The U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. told the UN Security Council that the U.S. was not involved or aware of the assassination of Haniyeh.
Haniyeh’s funeral is expected to take place in Doha, on Friday.
Both Hamas and Iran have sworn revenge. It is unclear what revenge Hamas is capable of at the moment—they likely still have some long range rockets, but very low manpower and mobility to launch them.
According to a Reuters report based on Hamas sources, Khaled Mashal, who is head of the terrorist organization’s diaspora abroad, is expected to replace Ismail Haniyeh as head of the political bureau. Mashal, who has also been living in Qatar with $4 billion in wealth, is not as popular as Haniyeh—both amongst the Iranian regime, and the Palestinian people.
While Haniyeh was a master at getting support and weapons from Iran, Mashal lost favor with the regime when he supported the Islamist rebels against Assad during the Syrian civil war. Haniyeh was also very popular amongst Arabs in Judea and Samaria, and was working towards establishing a “unity government” over Palestinian Authority areas in Judea and Samaria, and in Gaza. While Haniyeh was successfully gathering support for this plan, and it was beginning to look like a viable possibility in a “day after” scenario, Mashal does not share the same popularity or charm, and so it’s unclear if he would be able to garner the same support.
Khaled Mashal is also on the IDF hit list, but even if he does survive, he is unlikely to have the same success as Ismail Haniyeh.
Gaza Humanitarian Efforts Updates:
213 trucks carrying humanitarian goods were transferred to Gaza.
6 tankers of fuel and 6 tankers of cooking gas designated for the operation of vital humanitarian infrastructure entered Gaza.
Northern Front Updates:
A suspected drone launched from Lebanon this morning was intercepted by the IDF before it entered Israeli airspace. Other than one false alarm, the north has been quiet since the assassination of Hezbollah’s military leader, Fuad Shukr.
Hezbollah announced that the funeral for Shukr will take place on Thursday afternoon, and that Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah will deliver a speech at 5:00 PM (although unspecified, this is usually by video, while Nasrallah hides in his underground bunker).
While Hezbollah deems deterred from moving in to a wider war with Israel, they are expected to retaliate heavily. Nasrallah will likely announce this at the funeral.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited troops on the Northern Border, and expressed confidence in the IDF’s readiness to handle Hezbollah, and return security to Israel’s north. “The IDF knows how to operate and reach a certain window in a neighborhood in Beirut, it also knows how to attack at a certain point in the underground, and we also know how to maneuver inside very strongly, and you are training on that this week, and this is a very important ability.”
Defense Minister Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, and said that the assassination of Shukr was a direct response to the murder of 12 children in Majdal Shams. Gallant also emphasized that Israel does not intend to escalate the situation further, but is on high alert in all formations and is prepared to respond to any attempted harm from Hezbollah.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz stated: “Israel is not interested in an all-out war, but the only way to prevent it is the immediate implementation of Resolution 1701. The world must now support Israel and demand an immediate cessation of Hezbollah’s firing, its withdrawal to the north of the Litani River and disarmament accordingly to UN Resolution 1701.”
Iranian Front Updates:
After Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated while in Tehran, the Iranian regime feels responsible for retaliation. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote on X/Twitter: “Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.” And that Israel “has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment.”
The New York Times reported according to sources in Tehran, that Khameini called an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, at which he gave an order for Iran to strike Israel directly. Reportedly, Iranian military commanders are considering an attack in a similar style to the April attack, in which Iran launched a combination of 70 UAVs, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel. The NYT sources asses that this time the primary target will be Tel Aviv and Haifa, and that it’s possible that Iran will coordinate a multi-front attack, with help from Hezbollah and militias in Iraq, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen.
It’s unclear how forceful Iran intends to be. While Khomeini has been speaking in strong terms, the Vice President of Iran, Mohammad Reza Aref, said that “Iran has no intention of escalating the conflict in the Middle East.”
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that “Tehran emphasizes that Washington is also responsible for the elimination of Haniyeh,” and that Iran the right to respond to anyone who attacks their sovereignty.
At 1:30 a.m. on Thursday morning, it was reported that Iran closed their airspace.
Typically (though not consistently), terrorist groups hold off retaliation responses until after the funeral of the assassinated leader, which in this case will be on Friday morning. Attacks like this are also usually done at night.
Israel Readiness Updates:
Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a determined speech to Israelis, in which he referenced the assassination of Shukr, but not Haniyeh. Netanyahu warned that challenging days are ahead, but that Israel will continue fighting until Hamas is completely defeated, and the hostages are returned home—no matter the pressure. He lauded the IDF troops for their heroism, and stated that “beyachad nenatzeach – united we will win.”
Chief of the Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar says the IAF is ready for any scenario, and that “there is no location that is too far for us to attack.”
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited troops at an Arrow long-range missile defense system battery, where he told them that “we don’t want war, but we are preparing for all possibilities.” The Arrow was used in April to intercept ballistic missiles fired by Iran.
When asked if the U.S. would assist Israel in the case of a wider war in the Middle East, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin responded “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.” He added that the U.S. prefers to avoid such a scenario, and is “going to work hard to make sure that we’re doing things to help take the temperature down and address issues through diplomatic gatherings.”
In the meantime, the IDF Homefront Command has not yet changed guidelines for Israeli civilians, but encourages diligence, and says that updates will be sent out immediately in case of any changes. The Homefront Command has been sending out educational material in recent days, with instructions for responding to various wartime scenarios.
(If you are in Israel and do not have the Homefront Command app set up on your smartphone, now is the time to do it.)
Several international airlines cancelled flights to Israel.
Estimates are that any attack would begin after both funerals are completed, either on Friday night, or in the following days. However, nothing is predictable.
Judea and Samaria Updates:
This morning a terrorist opened fire on a car near Beit Einun, and then approached and stabbed the Jewish driver—in front of his daughter who was in the passenger seat. The driver was evacuated to the hospital in serious condition. The IDF later found and detained the terrorist. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was the beginning of the revenge for the killing of Haniyeh.
Later at night, two Jewish farmers were attacked by Arab rioters near Efrat, and were lightly injured.
